The week ahead is filled with a fundamental economic calendar that could mark an accurate pivot in sentiments of global markets. Investors will have a whole gamut of events to look forward to starting from:
U.S. Consumer Price Index, CPI, November 13, 2024
The U.S. is due to publish its data on Wednesday for the CPI-an indication that always tends to point out the tendencies of inflation in the nation. Markets would be keen to find out whether inflation was moderating or remaining high since the former indeed is an assurance of interest in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. That would imply that if finally the inflation cools down, then there could be a pause in future rate increases-which is what equities would be thankful for. Of course, the dogged persistence of inflation could spur the Fed onto further firm up and influence both bonds and stocks along the way.
China Industrial Production and Retail Sales – November 14, 2024
Industrial production and retail sales data are due from China Thursday. The indicators reflect the health of the world’s second-biggest economy. Strong readings would add to the demand for commodities and further boost confidence in a global economic recovery. While softer numbers would add to concerns about a wider economic slowdown. Chinese data has wide ramifications, particularly for energy and commodity markets.
UK Inflation Data – November 13, 2024
The UK will also release its rate of inflation on Wednesday. Inflation remains high and for that reason has remained a pressuring factor upon the BoE. If the rate happens to be higher than expected, that could drive the BoE to continued rate increases which would go on to strengthen the pound but hurt sectors dependent upon consumer spending.
Eurozone GDP- November 15, 2024
The third-quarter GDP data for the Eurozone is due on Friday. This will continue to reveal further evidence of the underlying momentum in the economy. A strong reading of the GDP may underpin expectations of continued ECB policy or further tightening, whereupon the euro could appreciate. Conversely, if the GDP figure turns out to be weak, growth concerns could have an effect on the ECB’s policy expectations.
US PPI and Retail Sales – November 14 and 15, 2024
Thursday and Friday’s release of US PPI and retail sales shows inflation pressures at the wholesale as well as consumer spending level. The former, especially, is representative of consumer confidence and could hence carry a heavier weight of influence upon economic and policy expectations. Solid spending by consumers would likely prop expectations that the Fed would be vigilant about inflation.
Japan Trade Balance – November 13, 2024
Tuesday’s trade balance data will give a view about the health of export-driven Japan’s economy. The data tends to affect the yen and those of its trade-dependent markets, which in turn impacts broader Asian sentiment.
Investor Strategy Tips
U.S. Inflation Data: It would be prudent for investors to consider hedging for upside in U.S. inflation with gold or inflation-linked bonds. These instruments are likely to guard against higher inflationary pressures.
Chinese Economic Data: Poor Chinese industrial production may insinuate that the demand for commodities could become low, hence reflecting in the price of metals and energies. This should be factored in by investors open to commodities while considering adjusting positions.
UK Inflation: Further UK inflation could continue to dent the performance of the UK-based equities, particularly those sensitive to consumer demands. For the currency trader, this is something to watch because it may give the pound some moves off this number for inflation.
While strong GDP figures for the Eurozone will boost the single currency, resilient retail sales in the U.S. can support the dollar. These two incidents have a bearing on forex markets and equities in consumer goods.
These events create or result in high market volatility, and it always keeps the investor informed about such happenings, better equips them to manage portfolio performance.